3rd December, 2013
The defection of five governors of Peoples Democratic Party to All Progressives Congress threatens the party’s 14 years dominance of Nigeria’s political space
It was long expected given the developments in the Nigeria political firmament in the past few months. Still, the manner it was executed had every element of surprise, similar to an early morning over-the-radio-announcement of a successful a coup d’etat Nigerians were used to in the years past. Thus, those who have employed words and phrases like ‘tectonic shift,’ “earthquake” and other superlatives in describing last Tuesday’s merger between a faction of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, and the grand coalition of opposition, the All Progressives Congress, APC, cannot be accused of being overly excited. “The perception alone of having so many governors working together in one party and platform will encourage people to share ideas, share values and encourage them to put their confidence in the electoral system to change the process and make sure one man, one woman, one vote should be the order of the day,” former Lagos governor, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, told a foreign television station last Wednesday.
Tinubu, alongside former military head of state and three times presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari and other interim leaders of APC, were instrumental to the merger. Tinubu and Buhari had led other APC chieftains in the past four weeks to convince the seven PDP governors, otherwise known as the G-7, to dump their party for APC. The seven governors had been at loggerheads with the Alhaji Bamanga Tukur leadership of PDP and had walked out of the party’s special national convention in Abuja on 31 August, to form a splinter group, generally referred to as the New PDP.
The splinter group subsequently announced Alhaji Kawu Baraje and former Osun governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola as Chairman and National Secretary respectively of the new version of PDP. Efforts by the splinter group to get itself recognised as the authentic executive of PDP through the courts were unsuccessful. In the same vein, series of talks between President Goodluck Jonathan and leadership of the splinter group led by the seven governors were unsuccessful.
To return to the mainstream of the party, the aggrieved PDP governors had demanded removal of Tukur from office, recognition of Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State as the Chairman of Nigeria Governors’ Forum, NGF, and recognition of the executive of a faction of the party loyal to Governor Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State as the authentic executive for the state chapter of the party among others. The Presidency repeatedly said the demands were like asking for the moon. Another of such reconciliatory meetings between the President and the governors which was initially scheduled to hold the Sunday before the announcement of the merger with APC was rescheduled. Ahmed Gulak, Special Adviser to the President, had ahead of the rescheduled meeting told journalists that the demands of the governors could not be met.
APC, a fusion of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria, Congress for Progressive Change, All Nigeria People’s Party and some elements of All Progressives Grand Alliance and DPA, which gained recognition as grand alliance of opposition parties with its recognition by the Independent National Electoral Commission earlier in the year, began courting the aggrieved PDP governors in its bid to expand its national footprint. APC already has 11 governors elected on the platform of the various legacy parties in its fold. The PDP governors that were reported to have initially given in to overtures by APC are Chibuike Amaechi (Rivers), Ahmed Abdulfatah (Kwara), Rabiu Kwankwaso (Kano), Murtala Nyako (Adamawa), and Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto). “A meeting of the leadership of APC and New PDP met…at the residence of Kano State Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, in Abuja. After an exhaustive deliberation, the two parties agreed to merge in order to rescue our fledgling democracy and the nation,” Baraje said in the two-sentence communiqué he read to journalists co-signed by Chief Bisi Akande, the interim Chairman of APC.
The Governors of Kano, Kwara, Adamawa, Rivers and Niger states attended the meeting while Lamido and Wamakko, who were reportedly on a visit to Senegal, were absent. Also present at the meeting were Oyinlola Jaja, Tinubu, who is the national leader of APC; a former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Bello Masari; and another APC leader, Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, among other chieftains.
Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu (Niger) and Sule Lamido (Jigawa), who are also part of the G7 governors, refused to move with their colleagues to the opposition party. While the Niger State governor said reconciliatory talks were still ongoing with President Jonathan and he would await the outcome of the negotiations before taking a final decision on whether to defect or not, his Jigawa State counterpart said he would remain to fight injustice within PDP. This magazine learnt that Lamido’s decision to stay in the PDP for now might not be unconnected with the recent arrest and investigation of his children by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, for alleged money laundering. The governor confirmed this in a statement issued by Umar Jatau, his Director of Press, immediately the merger was announced.
“Despite the fact that my party, the PDP, is embroiled in a serious crisis, especially with the bad leadership of Bamanga (Tukur), that will not necessitate me to renounce my party. My family and I are currently under a huge political heat wave and campaign of misinformation aimed to smear our reputation and we have been adjudged guilty in the court of public opinion by the gullible and the misinformed,” said the governor.
“This will not intimidate me or harass me out of PDP. I will not give anybody the pleasure to engage me by his term. I will still maintain my position as the leader of PDP,” he added.
On his own part, the Niger State governor is said to be afraid that leaving the PDP now would give former military president Ibrahim Babangida the opportunity of taking over the structure of the party in the state. Babangida is reportedly interested in seeing his first son emerge as the next Governor of Niger, a move Aliyu is said not to be comfortable with. Beyond this Aliyu, who resigned as a permanent secretary in Federal Capital Territory, Abuja is also said to be afraid of losing the vast landed property he acquired while in office in a backlash that may follow his defection from the ruling party.
The Bala Mohammed FCT administration has sufficiently demonstrated its capacity in this regard with revocation notices it has already served on properties belonging to those deemed to be sympathetic to new PDP, like Senators Ahmed Markarfi, Aishat Jumai and even, the Kano State governor. The governors’ stay-back in PDP, sources also told this magazine last week, may be strategic as it may not be politically expedient for all the governors to move out of PDP at the same time. Apart from the two governors, the status of Governor Wamakko in relation to the merger was also not clear as at the time of writing this story last week.
Oyinlola also said less than 24 hours after his participation at the merger meeting that he remained a member of PDP. The former governor said he remained the national secretary of the PDP based on 6 November Court of Appeal Abuja judgment in which he was ordered to be reinstated to office, but which the party refused to comply with, but instead suspended him: “I have been the National Secretary of the PDP based on the judgment delivered on 6 November and until a superior court reverses it, I remain the National Secretary of the PDP.” This was before the PDP National Disciplinary Committee recommended his total expulsion from the party on the same day. He is to be expelled alongside Dr. Sam Sam Jaja and Baraje, the Deputy National Chairman and Chairman of the now-defunct New PDP respectively.
The three party chieftains had earlier been suspended on 11 November for anti-party activities. Chief Ebenezer Babatope, deputy chairman of the PDP Disciplinary Committee, who announced the suspension, said Baraje, Oyinlola and Jaja were guilty of engaging in anti-party activities as was alleged against them.
But the defections have been met with celebrations, particularly in Kwara, Rivers and Adamawa states, especially among supporters of the governors. In Rivers, Amaechi said the neglect his state has suffered under the administration of President Jonathan necessitated the change of political platform. The change, he said, became necessary to protect Rivers’ interest. Amaechi listed the injustices Rivers has suffered under the administration to include losing its oil wells in Etche, in the Kalabari areas to Bayelsa State, the home state of the President, among others. He also hinted that corruption is at all-time high in the PDP-led federal government: “If you look at what is going on, the Federal Government is not able to fund the states anymore. They say oil theft, but oil theft is not enough reason for which we cannot fund ourselves.”
He also said with lack of progress in the reconciliation talks with the mainstream PDP, members of the new PDP decided to move to APC to position themselves for the next elections. “Rivers State must know that for me to have taken that decision, I had looked at the general interests of Rivers people. I was not elected to lead Nigeria; I was elected to lead Rivers State and I had looked at the interests of Rivers people and have seen that these interests were not protected in PDP, ” Amaechi said, even as he maintained that he still held the President in high esteem and had no personal quarrel with him.
On his part, Nyako said the high level of impunity exhibited by PDP under Tukur leadership has become unbearable. He recalled that the the National Chairman of PDP refused to yield to calls to reverse the issolution of the state executive which was at the root of PDP crisis in the state. “The current PDP leaders have hijacked the party and they seem to have no clue about what it is supposed to be doing at all. It has reduced politics to personal quarrels, blackmail and cheating and no decent man can remain in the party as its antics may lead the country to civil war,” Nyako said.
The situation was not different in Ilorin, Kwara State. Though the state governor was reported to have traveled outside the country after the announcement of the merger in Abuja, supporters of the party gathered at the secretariat of the former PDP to celebrate the development. Alhaji Ishola Fulani, former chairman of the New PDP, said they are now bona fide members of the APC as political leaning in Kwara State is determined by the Sarakis: “We are Sarakites and we have our structure; anywhere we move to we do that en masse. All the executives of the wards, local councils and of the state will move en masse to the party our leaders said they have merged with.”
The reaction of PDP has been a mix of good riddance, anxiety and disappointment. In Rivers, members of the PDP executive, who have been anti-Amaechi since their recognition as the authentic leaders of the party in the state by an Abuja High Court were, to say the least, exhilarated. The Felix Obuah leadership loyal to Nyesom Wike, Minister of State for Education and first lady, Patience Jonathan, the two anchor of opposition to Amaechi, said it will organise a thanksgiving to celebrate the exit of Amaechi. In the same vein, a faction of the Adamawa chapter of PDP loyal to Tukur was happy about the development. The situation was the same in other states.
In its initial reaction, the National headquarters of PDP actually said it welcomed the defection of the governors as any Nigerian citizen has the right to associate with anybody he/she deems fit. “We wish to state categorically that the PDP remains unperturbed as we are now rid of detractors and distractions. We urge all our members nationwide to remain focused and close ranks, now that agents of distraction have finally left our ranks,” Olisah Metuh, PDP National Publicity Secretary said in the statement.
However Tukur, who is outside the country, was more subdued in a statement he issued last Wednesday. The National Chairman of PDP, who said he was “shocked” by the defection of five governors, urged willing members of the G7 and other aggrieved members of the PDP to return to the “mainstream” party. Analysts however said last week that the leadership of PDP and the Presidency are more pained by the defection of the governors because of its implication on their dominance of Nigeria politics than they are willing to admit.
It was gathered that this was why the presidency was still very keen that the G7 governors attend the resumption of peace talks with President Jonathan scheduled for last Sunday. It was however not clear as at the time of writing this story if any of the aggrieved governors, with the exception of Lamido and Aliyu, would honour the invitation.
The fear of the presidency and some members of the ruling party, as was learnt last week, is that if the merger of the five governors with APC held till 2015, it may lead to a situation in which PDP would come out of the general election a minority party and perhaps, without producing the President as it had done in the four previous polls. This was the anticipation of the opposition elements who worked to consummate the merger. Tinubu told an international television station last week. “The scale and balance of power is tilting and changing to the opposition,” the former Lagos state governor said. “This development will start reshaping the landscape of politics in this country forever,” he added.
The immediate challenge to the PDP dominance of Nigeria’s political firmament may be in the National Assembly, where the party has enjoyed overwhelming majority since 1999. The situation in both chambers of the National Assembly was still fluid as at the time of writing this story last week.
But in the House of Representatives, 49 out of the 67 members who are loyalists of the G7 governors and members of the new PDP announced that they were following their leaders to APC immediately. The announcement was made by Suleiman Kawu Sumaila, who said the defecting legislators include members from Adamawa, Kano, Kwara, Rivers and Sokoto. The other 18 lawmakers still staying in the PDP are from Jigawa and Niger states. PDP had 70 senators and 204 House members while APC had 137 members in the House before the defection. In the Senate, the defection of one or two senators from Rivers, Kano, Kwara, Sokoto and Adamawa states to APC is set to threaten PDP’s majority position in the upper chamber.
In addition, there are some PDP senators who have been sympathetic to the cause of the PDP because of their differences with their state governors or struggle for control of the structure of the party in their states. Those in this category who may also go with APC include Senators Aisha Alhassan from Taraba State, Mohammed Danjuma Goje and Saidu Alkali from Gombe State. Senator Abdullahi Adamu and Mohammed Adoke from Nassarawa State are also known to be sympathetic to the NPDP. Also Isiaka Bawa, a member of the House of Reps from Taraba State, said the merger will not be a threat to PDP’s control of the House.
Aminu Tambuwal said that members would decide when to defect to APC. In a statement through his Special Adviser on Media, Imam Imam, he said it is left to members to activate the process. The statement read: “MPs will decide collectively on when to defect. They have their internal process if they decide to cross carpet. Let us wait and see whether they can activate the process or not.” Section 68 subsection (1g) of Electoral Act (2010) stipulates a lawmaker who defects to another party can only keep his seat if he can prove that there is a “division in the party of which he was previously a member or of a merger of two or more political parties or faction by one of which he was previously sponsored”.
This magazine gathered that some of the lawmakers may be exercising caution in pushing to be identified by their new party as a result of this provision. It was gathered that some hawks in the presidency are actually waiting for the intending lawmakers to inform the presiding officers of the change of party before pushing for the activation of this section of the Electoral Act.
But leadership of the now-defunct New PDP assured the lawmakers that with the crisis in their parent party, the PDP is at the moment, they can defect without suffering the consequence of losing their seats. Citing several legal precedents, they noted the courts had held that a member who defects will keep his seat if his defection is as a result of a division or split in his party. “In this regard, particularly now that we have the majority in the National Assembly, our members in the National Assembly should express no fear as they are well protected and covered by the Constitution of the Federal Republic seeing that Alhaji Bamanga Tukur and his cohorts have succeeded to split the PDP into old and new PDP and are free to join any party of their choice,” Eze Chukwuemeka Eze, the spokesperson for the New PDP said in a statement.
The transition of the minority party to the majority will further complicate the problem the presidency has been having getting things done at the National Assembly. At the state level, the PDP is still in control of 18 out of the 36 states while APC now controls 16.
Both parties will however be at par in terms of number of states under their control if the Governors of Jigawa and Niger states eventually decide to join the opposition party. For the PDP, the problem will however be at the presidential level. This magazine learnt last week that there’s now a real fear of the possibility of Jonathan being a one-term president. A source told this magazine last week that it will be difficult for any presidential candidate to win any election without bagging 25 per cent of the votes in any two of Kano, Lagos and Rivers, the three states now safely in the pouch of the opposition. As explained by one analyst, to win Nigeria’s presidential election easily, a candidate will have to win Kano, Lagos and Rivers states. According to 2011 records of INEC, the three states also account for 13.7million votes, about 25 per cent of total number of registered voters in the country.
Borno and Sokoto, two states under the control of opposition, also ranked among eight states with the largest number of voters in the country. If Buhari had been able to add significant number of votes from the South-West to the over 19 million votes he got majorly from the North-West and the North-East in the 2011 polls, he could have given Jonathan a major challenge. But the failure of the opposition to agree to work together in 2011 was to President Jonathan’s advantage.
The formation of APC early may work against the President this time around. Comrade Shehu Sanni, a human rights advocate, said the merger of the five governors with APC “will give more beef and nerve to the opposition and help propel the forces of change to power”. Also likely to complicate matters for the President is his declining popularity, especially outside of the South-South and South-East zones. Furthermore, northerners are also likely to rally around APC since they desperately want to recapture power in 2015.
The President and his supporters are aware of the challenge posed by the APC. This magazine however gathered that supporters of the President are assuring him that the fact that a particular governor has defected does not mean that the structure and supporters of the party in the state will go with him to the new party. The Presidency, it was gathered, therefore believe that the challenge is to look for personalities with political strength who will be empowered to be the anchor of the PDP in the affected states. It was learnt that the delay in filling vacant ministerial positions is in anticipation of this development.
The Presidency also believes that Amaechi or no Amaechi, the prevailing sentiment about Jonathan in the Niger Delta will ensure that Rivers State will vote for the President in the 2015 election. In addition to this, supporters of the President had insisted that the G7 governors contributed little to the election of the President in 2011, as most of their states were won by General Buhari, the then CPC candidate.
This aside, this magazine gathered that the PDP and loyalists of the President will do everything possible to destabilise APC before 2015. But APC itself also has it work cut out for it if it is to survive till 2015. A major challenge the party will surely face in the coming months will be how to accommodate the newcomers in the party. For instance, before the merger there were APC stalwarts in states like Kano, Nasarawa and Sokoto who were not in sync with the PDP governors of their states who are now members of the party.
In Kano State for instance, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau who has been leading the APC, has been at loggerheads with Governor Kwankwaso. Indeed, the leaders of the opposition had to send a special delegation to pacify Shekarau when they visited Kwankwaso without informing him some weeks ago. The situation is not different in Sokoto, where there is likely to be a battle for supremacy between former governor Attahiru Bafarawa and the newcomer Governor Wamakko.
It was learnt that a Memorandum of Understanding signed by the defecting governors gave them control of the structures of APC in their states. With this, the new APC members will play an active role in the emergence of who would be involved in selection of APC presidential candidate in 2015 as well as candidates for other positions in their states. The party, it was learnt, is already thinking of how to tackle the major challenges expected in Sokoto and Kano states. It is also believed that the battle for the party’s presidential ticket, if not well handled, may also stretch the party to breaking point. The extent to which the party is able to confront these problems will determine whether it will really see the PDP out of its dominant position in Nigeria’s political space.
—Ayorinde Oluokun/Abuja