4th December, 2012
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) says Nigeria cannot realise its goal of becoming one of the largest 20 economies in the world by the year 2020
The Director General of NESG, Mr Frank Nweke Jnr, said on Monday in Abuja that that achievement would go to Saudi Arabia.
Nweke made the observation while presenting the 2012 Nigerian Economic Scorecard at the three-day 18th NESG, with the theme, “Deregulation, Cost of Governance and Nigeria’s Economic Prospects.”
The Vision 20:2020 is aimed at making Nigeria one of the top 20 economies by year 2020.
“Based on our projections using the IMF World Economic Outlook database, our findings are that:
“Saudi Arabia will be the 20th largest economy in the world by 2020, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1.2 trillion dollars in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP),” he said.
“Nigeria on the other hand would be the 27th largest economy in the world by 2020, with a GDP of $864 billion in PPP; falling short of being the 20th largest economy by a GDP of $316 billion,” NESG boss said.
He said Nigeria needed $730 billion to close the gap in order to become the 20th largest economy by 2020.
According to him, this is calculated as the difference between the GDP of the 20th largest economy in 2020 – which is Saudi Arabia and Nigeria’s current GDP in 2012 estimated by the IMF as 450 billion dollars in PPP.
“Otherwise, Nigeria could become the 20th largest economy by 2035, cetetris paribus,” Nweke added.
He said that only an accelerated pace of economic growth and reforms could shorten the time frame for the country.
“For instance, there is a need for substantive reforms to ensure local oil refining capacity within the economy.
“Beyond the need to ensure oil refining capacity in Nigeria, we find a compelling need to diversify a way from the mono-productive oil base,” Nweke said.
In his comments, the Minister of National Planning Commission, Dr Shamsuddeen Usman, said the vision was not a prediction but an inspirational road map through which Nigeria could become one of the 20 top economies by year 2020.
Usman said Nigeria was the 37th economy in the world when the Federal Government initiated the vision document in 1999 but “Nigeria is now ranked 31st economy in the world.”
He said the country’s present rank was based on the concerted efforts made by the Federal Government to provide good governance, improve Infrastructure and human capital development.
The chairman of NESG, Mr Foluso Phillips, urged the Federal Government to come up with national projects that would engage massive population.
Phillips said projects such as the integrated rail system and infrastructure would provide massive employment to the people.