24th March, 2011
As a kid I watched a popular cowboy movie titled The Good, The Bad, The Ugly. Honestly speaking, I did not understand the theme of that movie until I grew up to realise that it was only trying to teach the lesson of the various temperaments and dispositions of man.
Though I stand to be corrected on the way I understand the movie, what I will not stand to be corrected on is the movie of the present political dispensation in Nigeria and the actors and actresses that have made the drama to reach its present climax.
For the sake of those that do not like horror movies, this write –up will begin from the plot of the good, before sailing on into the deep shores of the bad and the ugly.Though nobody is saying that the forthcoming elections will be ugly, the electioneering campaigns and all the intrigues involved already depict pictures of bomb blasts, assassination attempts and desperation as exhibited by the candidates that are vying for various offices in our dear country Nigeria.
There is no doubt that the stage is set for yet another remarkable event in the history of the most populous black nation on earth.
The actors for now are still doing their make-ups and dress rehearsals and from all indications, the cameras are about to roll, to capture the script as has been written and edited by political parties and their professional script writers.
What bothers me though is that even during the rehearsals, actors are already dying from bullet wounds, and that is indeed sad, because the show is just about to begin and I don’t want to believe that the script writers have such in their plot.
We are still on the good, yet to even open the first chapter of the bad, so the ugly is still far from being recorded. But recent happenings make me wonder how ugly things can be.
In mathematics there is arithmetic progression and geometric progression but in movies we have the prologue and epilogue, and one always comes before another, all things being equal.
Looking at the good, the country has been able to conduct a computerised voter registration exercise that is expected to check electoral fraud like multiple voting, ghost voters and under-age voters, which is a good thing for our democracy and if it truly works, will make the 2011 elections historic.
Also, the choice of Professor Attahiru Jega as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman is also a good thing and there are expectations that it would result in the conduct of a credible election in April, which will ensure that only those actually voted for emerge winners.
But come to think of it, Jega is only one man and most likely, he will be relying on the inputs from Resident Electoral Commissioners (RECs) from the 36 states and Abuja.
That brings us to another good thing that we can at least boast of, which is the emergence of the party flag bearers for the April polls. It was good because we did not hear of any of the conventions levelled to the ground during the events and that is a plus because we had actors and actresses emerge from the auditions successfully to play their roles.
It is no longer news that the PDP all of a sudden saw the emergence of a candidate from the south in the person of incumbent President Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan, despite several calls from the north insisting on a flag bearer from the north on the basis of the party’s zoning formula..
Anyway, that is history now and we are glad that we can still convince people that this can fall under the good of this drama even as we are yet to reach the climax.
Not only the PDP convention was good, newly formed Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) also had one that saw the emergence of General Muhammadu Buhari, who had no rival, and a Lagos pastor Tunde Bakare that strongly believes in preaching righteousness and good governance.
This is good because, it has brought about strong opposition for the ruling PDP who know they have to work harder to seek for votes from the electorate. They know that the CPC has fielded two candidates of impeccable character for the President and vice President respectively.
The CPC also made a wise decision by combining a pastor with General Buhari who for a long time was accused by Christians as a fanatic who only wants the seat to propagate Islam or Islamise Nigeria.
Still on the good, one man that got an easy mandate as a flag bearer is incumbent Kano State Governor, Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, who had it easy as a result of General Buhari’s defection to CPC.
It made it easy for the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) to annoint Shekarau as the party’s flagbearer and this is good.
But the most interesting good was the PDP Northern presidential aspirant, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, accepting defeat by President Goodluck Jonathan during the party’s primary in January in Abuja.
As for the bad, first of all, President Goodluck Jonathan’s decision to contest the April polls was not only bad to the ruling PDP, but a threat to the corporate existence of Nigeria.
An agreement is an agreement, as such it deserves to be honoured to the letter. If the PDP in 1999 agreed to zone key positions which included the presidency to different zones to ensure the unity of the country, then why should a u-turn be made all of a sudden?
It is alright to say the constitution of Nigeria does not have a provision for zoning but even our conscience should be able to prick us and if it doesn’t, it is bad.
Still on the bad, the north for now is not in a position to provide the opposition that will defeat the PDP at the polls as a result of division on ethnic and religious grounds. The north will hence, be relying on the southwest’s support as a result of General Buhari’s running-mate Pastor Tunde Bakare who is from that region.
The bad still works against the north as it yet has produced the highest number of candidates vying for the office of the presidency. Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN’s) Nuhu Ribadu, noted as a dogged anti-corruption fighter, ANPP’s Malam Ibrahim Shekarau who is also an achiever and the most popular as of now as well as CPC’s General Muhammadu Buhari.
All these are bad for the region and would definetely not work in its favour, coupled with the fact that the middle-belt region that used to be part of the stronghold of the north are vehemently behind President Goodluck Jonathan.
Also, the PDP Vice Presidential aspirant Architect Muhammed Namadi Sambo is expected to steal some votes from the north from his supporters especially in the state he once served as governor, which is also bad for the north’s quest to win the presidential election through either Buhari, Ribadu or Shekarau as votes in this region will be split between candidates from the region.
We have already started witnessing the ugly trends of bombing which have enveloped the country as a result of political scheming. Though it would be in bad light to promote ugly incidents or to even predict them, it however, is not out of place to mention such, in view of the dimension they are taking.
The ugly would become really evident if the elections are held and some aggrieved persons decide to seek redress out of the law courts or there is a stalemate that will trigger violent protests as being witnessed in the Middle-East and parts of North Africa. But we should all pray the ugliness does not make Nigeria disintegrate.
•Jacob Onjewu Dickson wrote from Lagos.
