12th August, 2016
In the key battleground of Florida, which President Obama won in 2008 and 2012, Clinton is ahead of Trump by five points among registered voters, 44 percent to 39 percent, with the rest saying neither, other or they’re undecided. (In the same poll before the conventions last month, it was Clinton 44 percent, Trump 37 percent.)
In North Carolina, which Obama won in 2008 but lost in 2012, the former secretary of state has a nine-point advantage over Trump, 48 percent to 39 percent. (A month ago, Clinton was up by six points, 44 percent to 38 percent.)
In Virginia, Clinton’s lead is 13 points, 46 percent to 33 percent. (It was Clinton 44 percent, Trump 35 percent in July’s poll.)
And in Colorado, the Democrat is ahead by a whopping 14 points, 46 percent to 32 percent. (It was an eight-point Clinton lead before the conventions, 43 percent to 35 percent.) Obama won both Colorado and Virginia in the previous two presidential elections.
“These are supposed to be battleground states, but right now, they don’t look that way,” says Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.
Indeed, if Clinton ultimately wins all four, Trump has no realistic path to getting the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. And even if Trump is able to win in Florida and its 29 electoral votes, he has to run the table in the other battlegrounds, including in Pennsylvania.
These new results come after a trio of other NBC/WSJ/Marist polls showed Clinton ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
When the presidential race is expanded to four candidates – including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party’s Jill Stein – the margins remain essentially the same.
In Colorado, Clinton leads Trump by 12 points, 41 percent to 29 percent, with Johnson at 15 percent and Stein at 6 percent.
In Florida, the Democrat is ahead of her GOP opponent by five points, 41 percent to 36 percent, with Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 4 percent.
In the four-way North Carolina contest, it’s Clinton at 45 percent, Trump at 36 percent, Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 2 percent.
And in Virginia, Clinton gets 43 percent, Trump gets 31 percent, Johnson gets 12 percent and Stein gets 5 percent.
Incumbent Burr trailing in North Carolina, Rubio ahead in Florida
Down the ballot, incumbent Republican Sen. Richard Burr is trailing Democratic challenger Deborah Ross in North Carolina by two points among registered voters, 46 percent to 44 percent. (Last month, Burr was ahead by seven points, 48 percent to 41 percent.)
In North Carolina’s gubernatorial race, incumbent Republican Gov. Pat McCrory is down by seven points to Democratic challenger Roy Cooper, 51 percent to 44 percent. (In July, it was Cooper 49 percent, McCrory 45 percent.)
But in Florida, incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio is ahead of top Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy, 49 percent to 43 percent. (It was Rubio 47 percent, Murphy 44 percent a month ago.)
And in Colorado’s Senate race, incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet is ahead of GOP challenger Darryl Glenn, 53 percent to 38 percent.
Finally, President Obama’s job-approval rating among registered voters stands at 53 percent in Colorado, 49 percent in Florida, 50 percent in North Carolina and 52 percent in Virginia.