26th August, 2015
By Eni Blessing
If there is one event in the history of Nigeria over which most of her citizens still hold their breath, even months after its conclusion, it is the last General Elections in the country, especially the Presidential election. One of the reasons is that most people are yet to come to terms with the reality of the peaceful conclusion of the elections.
As far back as 2010, or thereabouts, numerous doomsday predictions were mouthed including that Nigeria would disintegrate by 2015. As the days drew near, events, both in the political, economic and even religious spheres did little to prevent that prediction. Aside the menace of the Islamic fundamentalist sect, Boko Haram, in the North-eastern part of the country, many other events occurred between that period and the election year to heat up the polity. It was, therefore, almost unbelievable that the elections came and went peacefully with a smooth change of government.
What, however, made the last general elections more significant is that for the first time in the political history of Nigeria, a sitting president was defeated in an election in which he was a candidate. The truth and reality is that in most countries of Africa “the power of incumbency” has largely been used often to subvert the will of the electorate. Nigeria had not been an exception until, of course, the last Presidential election on 28 March.
This, in itself, is a point to note in favour of former President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan who, it would be recalled, made a firm promise during his campaigns that under his watch, the general elections would be free and fair. One of the most remarkable statements he made while conceding victory to Buhari was: “As I have always affirmed, nobody’s ambition is worth the blood of any Nigerian. The unity, stability and progress of our dear country is more important than anything else.”
So, in what today is being referred to as historic move, President Jonathan conceded victory to the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC ) General Muhammadu Buhari, hours before the results were concluded. Not a few Nigerians have, however, argued that the action had no significance as, according to them, the former President had no choice but to do what he did. I beg to disagree. Such Nigerians may have forgotten the incident of June 12, 1993, when a military President stopped the collation of election results and declared the whole exercise inconclusive, null and void.
Also such people have only to look at countries like Somalia of today, Rwanda, Southern Sudan and of course Liberia to realize the worth and character of the sacrifice made by former President Goodluck Jonathan. Take Liberia for instance: although that country is today comparatively stable under the Presidency of Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Liberia was enmeshed in years of bloody civil war that almost consumed that country of multi-ethnic groups just like Nigeria. It was an aftermath of an attempt by the then incumbent President, Samuel Doe, to subvert the result of the Presidential election in that country in 1985. This sparked off a protest which resulted in an attempted coup by General Thomas Quiwonkpa and other members of the original junta that seized power with Doe in 1980. Though the coup was suppressed, it further degenerated into ethnic tension and civil war prompting the formation of ECOMOG, a sub-regional intervention force led by Nigeria, which finally brokered the peace that is in Liberia today.
But, most commendably, President Jonathan chose that path of honour and conceded victory to his opponent instead of contesting the results or taking any other available option that could possibly scuttle that election. After all, it is not as if he, or indeed his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), was bereft of support from Nigerians. As a matter of fact, the President was standing pretty at the time of the elections based on his administration’s notable achievements across various sectors of the economy. Such sectors include agriculture, where significant efforts have been made to return the country to the green days when palm oil from the East, cocoa and rubber from the West and groundnuts from the North constituted the mainstay of the nation’s economy.
And Transportation where the hitherto comatose Nigerian Railways across the country has been fully revitalized. Also, in spite of the poor performance of the energy sector under his watch, it is evident today that he made significant impact in that sector given the fact that there has been a significant improvement in the supply of electricity across the country while our refineries are about to commence capacity production. All these go to show that there was indeed significant groundwork under the former President as the said improvements couldn’t have been achieved by the incumbent government in just less than three months of assumption of office.
But at the time of the general elections, the tender rope that bound the nation together seemed clearly under stress. With what was going on in the Northeast of the country where insurgents held, and are still holding sway, as well as other long standing disenchantment which predated his administration, if the former President had contested the results of the election, rancor could have set in; and given the fragile nature of the polity, ambitious politicians may have taken advantage of it to create confusion, a scenario which clearly is against the humane nature of the former President who had sworn, and indeed made spirited efforts during his tenure, to protect the unity of the country above all other interests .
The scenario of a Nigeria engulfed in a modern warfare is simply unnerving. Take for example the menace of the Boko Haram in parts of the North-east today. Just think of the heavy military hardware that the insurgents use to inflict holocaust on the population. Where and how do they get those weapons of war? A Nigeria in a modern war, therefore, is likely to be disastrous. Firstly, insurgency may become more pronounced with other militia groups rising to take up arms. The nation would also be exposed to infiltration by foreign murderous groups like the Al Qaida and ISIS. And with these modern weapons in the hands of the unorganized and largely illiterate Nigerians, coupled with the not too skin-deep hate syndrome that pervades the different ethnic, religious and even political segments that make up the country, such a war will certainly set the country ablaze in record time.
What would be the implication of such a war to the rest of the African Continent? The first implication of course is that of refugee management. Where would 180 million people migrate to? Most of Nigeria’s neighbours are poor and dependent on Nigeria for sustenance. Nigeria, the Giant of Africa, is no mean burden to be shouldered by just any country. The short and long term impacts would be that the economy of the continent would be adversely affected and many countries of the region would be in trouble as the economies of most of them are tied to that of Nigeria. Again, many countries of the region would face political crises since Nigeria has provided stability for them. On the whole, the implication of a war in Nigeria would be disastrous for Africa both economically and security wise. Of course, organizing a regional intervention force such as in the case of Liberia would be near impossible without perhaps assistance from the United Nations. Nigeria has always been at the lead of such interventions across Africa.
Therefore, for the fact that former President Jonathan took the bold step to save this nation, and by extension African continent, from what would have certainly been a disastrous consequence for the country and the continent, he deserves commendation. Of course the former President has already got loads of both national and international commendations since he took that bold step. The truth remains today that no matter the failings and mistakes attributed to the former President (which is natural, after all no man is without fault), that historic action will remain a legacy for him in the annals of this nation. It will also remain a lesson for other leaders at whatever levels, both incumbent and upcoming, to know when to put the interest of the people, for whom they are called to serve in the first place, above selfish partisan interests.
—Blessing is a socio-economic and political analyst based in Lagos