At N283bn, Nigeria’s census costlier than that of India or China

Eze Duru Iheoma

Eze Duru Iheoma

By Ademola Adegbamigbe

Eze Duru Iheoma
Eze Duru Iheoma

China and India have a staggering population of over one billion people each and they pretty much contribute a sizeable figure of the global population but somehow conducting a census in these countries is cheaper than than of Nigeria, which has a population of 180 million people.

When Eze Duru Iheoma, Chairman of the National Population Commission, NPC, visited President Muhammadu Buhari on Monday 10 August 2015, in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital, he told his host that the commission would require N273 billion to conduct another national census in 2016. He said that the commission would need N10 billion additionally to prepare for the census. This means NPC envisages a budget of N283 billion to count Nigerians.

Duru Iheoma tried to justify the request saying that a biometric-based census was being proposed because it would eliminate multiple and ghost respondents, while making the outcome easy to audit.

The estimate he gave has met with an air of disbelief since it went public, echoing a similar resentment when INEC announced it was spending N84billion to register voters in 2011.

Is N283 billion not too much for a census, even with all the biometric data infused in the enumeration?

The 2006 census cost the Federal government $266 million (about N53 billion now) and half of the money was provided by the European Union and other multilateral international donors.

Even if we assume cost to have doubled, the estimated cost should not be above $532 million dollars, not the bill of $1.4 billion presented to President Muhammadu Buhari on Monday.

In the United States, budget estimates for each ten-year interval are always doubled. And thus the 2010 census in the country cost $13 billion, approximately $42 per capita, as against the $6 billion spent in 2000.

Even then, the US budget has always been questioned, even with many adhoc enumerators—635,000 were hired in 2011, deployed to count 308million people.

By comparison the United Nations has a benchmark for enumeration cost, at $4.60 per head, about 10 per cent of the US cost.

While there may be deviations from this in many developed countries, this is not so in China, which spent an average of US$1 and India US$0.40.

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India that has a population of 1.2 billion conducts more effective census with lower cost per head. For example, it conducted its census between 9 and 28 February 2011, using biometrics for the first time since 1872 when the exercise started in the country. The exercise cost US$340 million, which is less than $0.50 per person.

The last census in Australia in 2011 cost about $440 million, or about $19 per person.

Britain which spent £210 million in 2001, spent £482 million in 2011, following a pattern of costs doubling.

What will then have accounted for Nigeria’s high cost, of $1.4 billion, working out to about five and half times of what was spent a decade ago. President Buhari needs to take a critical look at the NPC estimate and call in the experts to seriously trim the costs and the design of the planned enumeration.

Canada, spent $567 million on its 2006 census, spread over seven years, employing more than 25,000 full and part-time census workers.

What will then have accounted for Nigeria’s high cost, of $1.4 billion, working out to about five and half times of what was spent a decade ago. The estimate even looks more bizarre and absurd, if we calculate per head cost. With an estimated population of 220 million in 2016, Nigeria would be spending N13,000 per head or about $70 per head. There is no where in the world where such a humongous expenditure is recorded for any national enumeration.

President Buhari needs to take a critical look at the NPC estimate and call in the experts to seriously trim the costs and the design of the planned enumeration.

This is even more so, as all the census ever conducted in Nigeria had been dogged with controversies. Why fritter so much money away for an exercise that may lead to courtroom arguments as it happened in 2006? Why not invest scarce resources on other things that will help the country grow?

A former National Chairman of the National Population Commission (NPC), Chief Festus Odimegwu said in an interview that the country has never had any credible census since 1863.

“No census has been credible in Nigeria since 1863. Even the one conducted in 2006 is not credible. I have the records and evidence produced by scholars and professors of repute. This is not my report. If the current laws are not amended, the planned 2016 census will not succeed.”

Beyond the expected controversies that a new census will stir, analysts are of the opinion that the NPC should consider the counsel of President Buhari that government agencies must find a way to synchronise all the biometric data being conducted by government agencies, even the banks.

Such an approach will pare down costs and with whatever is budgeted, the NPC will still be able to conduct a credible census.

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